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Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of social distancing in the United States
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint
in English
| EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-313484
ABSTRACT
Understanding the number of individuals who have been infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, and the extent to which social distancing policies have been effective at limiting its spread, are critical for effective policy going forward. Here we present estimates of the extent to which confirmed cases in the United States undercount the true number of infections, and analyze how effective social distancing measures have been at mitigating or suppressing the virus. Our analysis uses a Bayesian model of COVID-19 fatalities with a likelihood based on an underlying differential equation model of the epidemic. We provide analysis for four states with significant epidemics California, Florida, New York, and Washington. Our short-term forecasts suggest that these states may be following somewhat different trajectories for growth of the number of cases and fatalities.
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Collection:
Preprints
Database:
EuropePMC
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Preprint
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