Changing patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection through Delta and Omicron waves by vaccination status, previous infection and neighbourhood deprivation: A cohort analysis of 2.7M people (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Objective To examine if SARS-CoV-2 infections vary by vaccination status, if an individual had previously tested positive and by neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation across the Delta and Omicron epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2. Design Cohort study using electronic health records Setting Cheshire and Merseyside, England (3 rd June 2021 to 1 st March 2022) Participants 2.7M residents Main Outcome measure Registered positive test for SARS-CoV-2 Results Social inequalities in registered positive tests were dynamic during the study. Originally higher SARS-CoV-2 rates in the most socioeconomically deprived neighbourhoods changed to being higher in the least deprived neighbourhoods from the 1 st September 2021. While the introduction of Omicron initially reset inequalities, they continued to be dynamic and inconsistent. Individuals who were fully vaccinated (two doses) were associated with fewer registered positive tests (e.g., between 1 st September and 27 th November 2021 (i) individuals engaged in testing – Hazards Ratio (HR) = 0.48, 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) = 0.47-0.50;(ii) individuals engaged with healthcare - HR = 0.34, 95% CIs = 0.33-0.34). Individuals with a previous registered positive test were also less likely to have a registered positive test (e.g., between 1 st September and 27 th November 2021 (i) individuals engaged in testing - HR = 0.16, 95% CIs = 0.15-0.18;(ii) individuals engaged with healthcare - HR = 0.14, 95% CIs = 0.13-0.16). However, Omicron is disrupting these associations due to immune escape resulting in smaller effect sizes for both measures. Conclusions Changing patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Delta and Omicron waves reveals a dynamic pandemic that continues to affect diverse communities in sometimes unexpected ways.