Mitigating COVID-19 outbreak via high testing capacity and strong transmission-intervention in the United States (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Most models of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States do not consider geographic variation, and their relevance to public policies is not straightforward. We developed a mathematical model that characterizes infections by state and incorporates inflows and outflows of interstate travelers. Modeling reveals that curbing interstate travel when the disease is already widespread will make little difference. Meanwhile, increased testing capacity (facilitating early identification of infected people and quick isolation) and strict social-distancing and self-quarantine rules are effective in abating the outbreak. The modeling has also produced state-specific information. For example, for New York and Michigan, isolation of persons exposed to the virus needs to be imposed within 2 days to prevent a broad outbreak, whereas for other states this period can be 3.6 days. This model could be used to determine resources needed before safely lifting state policies on social distancing.