Associations of stay-at-home order and face-masking recommendation with trends in daily new cases and deaths of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the United States (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background and objectives: Public health interventions were associated with reduction in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in China, but their impacts on COVID-19 epidemiology in other countries are unclear. We examined the associations of stay-at-home order (SAHO) and face-masking recommendation with epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the United States. Methods: In this quasi-experimental study, we modeled the temporal trends in daily new cases and deaths of COVID-19, and COVID-19 time-varying reproduction numbers (Rt) in the United States between March 1 and April 20, 2020, and conducted simulation studies. Results: The number and proportion of U.S. residents under SAHO increased between March 19 and April 7, and plateaued at 29,0829,980 and 88.6%, respectively. Trends in COVID-19 daily cases and Rt reduced after March 23 (P<0.001) and further reduced on April 3 (P<0.001), which was associated with implementation of SAHO by 10 states on March 23, and face-masking recommendation on April 3, respectively. The estimates of Rt eventually fell below/around 1.0 on April 13. Similar turning points were identified in the trends of daily deaths with a lag time. Early implementation and early-removal of SAHO would be associated with significantly reduced and increased daily new cases and deaths, respectively.