National age and co-residence patterns shape covid-19 vulnerability (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Based on harmonized census data from 81 countries, we estimate how age and co-residence patterns shape the vulnerability of countries' populations to outbreaks of covid-19. We estimate variation in deaths arising due to a simulated random infection of 10% of the population living in private households and subsequent within-household transmission of the virus. The age-structures of European and North American countries increase their vulnerability to covid-related deaths in general. The co-residence patterns of elderly persons in Africa and parts of Asia increase these countries' vulnerability to deaths induced by within-household transmission of covid-19. Southern European countries, which have aged populations and relatively high levels of intergenerational co-residence are, all else equal, the most vulnerable to outbreaks of covid-19. In a second step, we estimate to what extent avoiding primary infections for specific age-groups would prevent subsequent deaths due to within-household transmission of the virus. Preventing primary infections among the elderly is the most effective in countries with small households and little intergenerational co-residence such as France, whereas confining younger age groups can have a greater impact in countries with large and inter-generational households such as Bangladesh.