A prediction model based on machine learning for diagnosing the early COVID-19 patients (preprint)

ABSTRACT

With the dramatically fast spread of COVID-9, real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test has become the gold standard method for confirmation of COVID-19 infection. However, RT-PCR tests are complicated in operation andIt usually takes 5-6 hours or even longer to get the result. Additionally, due to the low virus loads in early COVID-19 patients, RT-PCR tests display false negative results in a number of cases. Analyzing complex medical datasets based on machine learning provides health care workers excellent opportunities for developing a simple and efficient COVID-19 diagnostic system. This paper aims at extracting risk factors from clinical data of early COVID-19 infected patients and utilizing four types of traditional machine learning approaches including logistic regression(LR), support vector machine(SVM), decision tree(DT), random forest(RF) and a deep learning-based method for diagnosis of early COVID-19. The results show that the LR predictive model presents a higher specificity rate of 0.95, an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.971 and an improved sensitivity rate of 0.82, which makes it optimal for the screening of early COVID-19 infection. We also perform the verification for generality of the best model (LR predictive model) among Zhejiang population, and analyze the contribution of the factors to the predictive models. Our manuscript describes and highlights the ability of machine learning methods for improving the accuracy and timeliness of early COVID-19 infection diagnosis. The higher AUC of our LR-base predictive model makes it a more conducive method for assisting COVID-19 diagnosis. The optimal model has been encapsulated as a mobile application (APP) and implemented in some hospitals in Zhejiang Province.