Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 using viral load data (preprint)

ABSTRACT

The incubation period, or the time from infection to symptom onset of COVID-19 has been usually estimated using data collected through interviews with cases and their contacts. However, this estimation is influenced by uncertainty in recalling effort of exposure time. We propose a novel method that uses viral load data collected over time since hospitalization, hindcasting the timing of infection with a mathematical model for viral dynamics. As an example, we used the reported viral load data from multiple countries (Singapore, China, Germany, France, and Korea) and estimated the incubation period. The median, 2.5, and 97.5 percentiles of the incubation period were 5.23 days (95% CI 5.17, 5.25), 3.29 days (3.25, 3.37), and 8.22 days (8.02, 8.46), respectively, which are comparable to the values estimated in previous studies. Using viral load to estimate the incubation period might be a useful approach especially when impractical to directly observe the infection event.