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Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states
Ramanan Laxminarayan; Brian Wahl; Shankar Reddy Dudala; K Gopal; Chandra Mohan; S Neelima; K. S. Jawahar Reddy; J Radhakrishnan; Joseph Lewnard.
  • Ramanan Laxminarayan; Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, New Delhi, India
  • Brian Wahl; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
  • Shankar Reddy Dudala; Government Medical College, Andhra Pradesh, India
  • K Gopal; Government of Tamil Nadu, Chennai, India
  • Chandra Mohan; Government of Tamil Nadu, Chennai, India
  • S Neelima; Guntur Medical College, Andhra Pradesh, India
  • K. S. Jawahar Reddy; Government of Andhra Pradesh, Amaravati, India
  • J Radhakrishnan; Government of Tamil Nadu, Chennai, India
  • Joseph Lewnard; University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20153643
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ABSTRACT
Although most COVID-19 cases have occurred in low-resource countries, there is scarce information on the epidemiology of the disease in such settings. Comprehensive SARS-CoV-2 testing and contact-tracing data from the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh reveal stark contrasts from epidemics affecting high-income countries, with 92.1% of cases and 59.7% of deaths occurring among individuals <65 years old. The per-contact risk of infection is 9.0% (95% confidence interval 7.5-10.5%) in the household and 2.6% (1.6-3.9%) in the community. Superspreading plays a prominent role in transmission, with 5.4% of cases accounting for 80% of infected contacts. The case-fatality ratio is 1.3% (1.0-1.6%), and median time-to-death is 5 days from testing. Primary data are urgently needed from low- and middle-income countries to guide locally-appropriate control measures.
Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Type of study: Observational study / Screening study Language: English Year: 2020 Document Type: Preprint

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Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Type of study: Observational study / Screening study Language: English Year: 2020 Document Type: Preprint