The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: epidemiology and impact of interventions (preprint)

ABSTRACT

In January 2020, a COVID19 outbreak was detected in Sichuan Province of China. The aim of this work is to characterize the epidemiology of the Sichuan outbreak and estimate the impact of the performed interventions. We analyzed patient records for all laboratory confirmed cases reported in the province for the period of January 21 to March 16, 2020. To estimate the basic and daily reproduction numbers, we used a Bayesian framework. In addition, we estimate the number of cases averted by the implemented control strategies. The outbreak resulted in 539 confirmed cases, lasted less than two months, and no further local transmission was detected after February 27. The median age of local cases was 8 years older than that of imported cases. Severity of symptoms increased with age. We estimated R0 at 2.4 (95% CI 1.6-3.7). The epidemic was self sustained for about 3 weeks before going below the epidemic threshold 3 days after the declaration of a public health emergency by Sichuan authorities. Our findings indicate that, were the control measures be adopted four weeks later, the epidemic could have lasted 49 days longer (95%CI 31-68 days), causing 9,216 (95%CI 1,317-25,545) more cases and possibly overwhelming Sichuan healthcare system.