This article is a Preprint
Preprints are preliminary research reports that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Preprints posted online allow authors to receive rapid feedback and the entire scientific community can appraise the work for themselves and respond appropriately. Those comments are posted alongside the preprints for anyone to read them and serve as a post publication assessment.
The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China (preprint)
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.08.03.20167056
ABSTRACT
Non-pharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19 spread have been implemented in several countries with different intensity, timing, and impact on transmission. As a result, post-lockdown COVID-19 dynamics are heterogenous and difficult to interpret. Here we describe a set of contact surveys performed in four Chinese cities (Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha) during the pre-pandemic, lockdown, and post-lockdown period to quantify the transmission impact of relaxing interventions via changes in age-specific contact patterns. We estimate that the mean number of contacts increased 5%-17% since the end of the lockdown but are still 3-7 times lower than their pre-pandemic levels. We find that post-lockdown contact patterns in China are still sufficiently low to keep SARS-CoV-2 transmission under control. We also find that the impact of school interventions depends non-linearly on the share of other activities being resumed. When most community activities are halted, school closure leads to a 77% decrease in the reproductive number; in contrast, when social mixing outside of schools is at pre-pandemic level, school closure leads to a 5% reduction in transmission. Moving forward, to control COVID-19 spread without resorting to a lockdown, it will be key to dose relaxation in social mixing in the community and strengthen targeted interventions.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Main subject:
COVID-19
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Preprint
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS