Modeling the combined effect of digital exposure notification and non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic in Washington state (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Contact tracing is increasingly being used to combat COVID-19, and digital implementations are now being deployed, many of them based on Apple and Google's Exposure Notification System. These systems are new and are based on smartphone technology that has not traditionally been used for this purpose, presenting challenges in understanding possible outcomes. In this work, we use individual-based computational models to explore how digital exposure notifications can be used in conjunction with non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as traditional contact tracing and social distancing, to influence COVID-19 disease spread in a population. Specifically, we use a representative model of the household and occupational structure of three counties in the state of Washington together with a proposed digital exposure notifications deployment to quantify impacts under a range of scenarios of adoption, compliance, and mobility. In a model in which 15% of the population participated, we found that digital exposure notification systems could reduce infections and deaths by approximately 8% and 6%, effectively complementing traditional contact tracing. We believe this can serve as guidance to health authorities in Washington state and beyond on how exposure notification systems can complement traditional public health interventions to suppress the spread of COVID-19.