Assessment of COVID-19 Pandemic in Nepal: A Lockdown Scenario Analysis (preprint)

ABSTRACT

The Government of Nepal issued a nationwide lockdown from 24 March to 21 July 2020, prohibiting domestic and international travels, border closures and closure of non-essential services. We collated the data provided by the Nepalese Ministry of Health and Population and assessed scenario of COVID-19 pandemic in Nepal during the lockdown period. There were only two confirmed cases from 610 Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) tests and no fatalities when the government introduced nationwide lockdown. Nepal had performed 7,791 RT-PCR tests for COVID-19, the highest number of tests during the lockdown. It has recorded its highest daily rise in coronavirus infections with a total of 740 new cases from the total of 4,483 RT-PCR tests performed on a single day. Nepal had reported total 17,994 positive cases and 40 deaths at the end of lockdown. The spatial distribution clearly shows that the cases were rapidly spreading from the southern part of the country where most points of entry and exit from India are located. The Government of Nepal needs to allocate more resources, increase its capacity to test and trace, establish dedicated isolation and quarantine facility and impose local restrictions to manage potential COVID-19 outbreak after easing lockdown.