Comparison of infection control strategies to reduce COVID-19 outbreaks in homeless shelters in the United States: a simulation study (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: Multiple COVID-19 outbreaks have occurred in homeless shelters across the US, highlighting an urgent need to identify the most effective infection control strategy to prevent future outbreaks. Objective: To estimate the probability of averting outbreaks in homeless shelters under different infection control strategies. Design: Microsimulation model of COVID-19 transmission in a representative homeless shelter over 30 days under different infection control strategies, including daily symptom-based screening, twice-weekly polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) testing and universal mask wearing. Setting: A shelter of 250 residents and 50 staff. Patients Residents and staff of homeless shelters in the US. Model calibrated to data from cross-sectional PCR surveys during COVID-19 outbreaks in five shelters in three US cities. Measurements Probability of averting a COVID-19 outbreak ([≥]3 infections in 14 days). Results: Basic reproduction number (R0) estimates for the observed outbreaks ranged from 2.9 to 6.2. The probability of averting an outbreak diminished with higher transmissibility (R0) within the simulated shelter and increasing transmission intensity in the local community. With moderate transmission intensity in the local community, the estimated probabilities of averting an outbreak in a low-risk (R0=1.5), moderate-risk (R0=2.9), and high-risk (R0=6.2) shelter were 0.33, 0.11 and 0.03 for daily symptom-based screening; 0.52, 0.27, and 0.04 for twice-weekly PCR testing; 0.47, 0.20 and 0.06 for universal masking; and 0.68, 0.40 and 0.08 for these strategies combined. Limitations: R0 values calibrated to reported outbreaks may be higher than for average shelter due to smaller outbreaks going unreported. Conclusion: In high-risk homeless shelter environments and locations with high community incidence of COVID-19 most infection control strategies are unlikely to prevent outbreaks. In lower-risk environments, combined interventions should be adopted to reduce outbreak risk. Primary Funding Source University of California, San Francisco; UCSF Benioff Homelessness and Housing Initiative.