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Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 before and after symptom onset: impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions in China (preprint)
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.12.16.20214106
ABSTRACT
Nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as contact tracing and quarantine, are currently the primary means of controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2; however, it remains uncertain which interventions are most effective at reducing transmission at the population level. Using serial interval data from before and after the rollout of nonpharmaceutical interventions in China, we estimate that the relative frequency of presymptomatic transmission increased from 34% before the rollout to 71% afterward. The shift touward earlier transmission indicates a disproportionate reduction in transmission post-symptom onset. We estimate that, following the rollout of nonpharmaceutical interventions, transmission post-symptom onset was reduced by 82% whereas presymptomatic transmission decreased by only 16%. These findings suggest that interventions which limit opportunities for transmission in the later stages of infection, such as contact tracing and isolation, may have been particularly effective at reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Preprint
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