Factors driving availability of COVID-19 convalescent plasma: Insights from a demand, production and supply model (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BackgroundCOVID-19 Convalescent Plasma (CCP) is a promising treatment for COVID-19. Blood collectors have rapidly scaled up collection and distribution programs. MethodsWe developed a detailed simulation model of CCP donor recruitment, collection, production and distribution processes. Simulations based on epidemics in 11 U.S. states, in which key parameters were varied over wide ranges, allowed identification of the drivers of ability to calibrate collections capacity and ability to meet demand for CCP. ResultsChanges in collection capacity utilization lagged increases and decreases in COVID-19 hospital discharges, and never exceeded 75% in most simulations. Demand could be met for most of the simulation period in most simulations, but in states with early sharp increases in hospitalizations a substantial portion of demand went unmet during these early peaks. Modeled second wave demand could generally be met with stockpiles established during first epidemic peaks. Apheresis machine capacity (number of machines) and probability that COVID-19 recovered individuals are willing to donate were the most important supply-side drivers of ability to meet demand. Recruitment capacity was important in states with early peaks. ConclusionsEpidemic trajectory was the most important determinant of ability to meet demand for CCP, although our simulations revealed several contributing operational drivers of CCP program success.