Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related control programme interruptions on progress towards the WHO 2030 target for soil-transmitted helminths (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background On the 1st of April 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended an interruption of all neglected tropical disease control programmes, including soil-transmitted helminths (STH), in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper investigates the impact of this disruption on the achieved progress towards the WHO 2030 target for STH. Methods We used two stochastic individual-based models to simulate the impact of missing one or more preventive chemotherapy (PC) rounds in different endemicity settings. We also investigate the extent to which the impact can be lessened by mitigation strategies, such as semi-annual or community-wide PC. Results Both models show that even without a mitigation strategy, control programmes will catch up by 2030. The catch-up time is limited to a maximum of 4.5 years after the interruption. Mitigations strategies may reduce this catch-up time by up to two years and can even increase the probability of achieving the 2030 target. Conclusions Though a PC interruption will only temporarily impact the progress towards the WHO 2030 target, programmes are encouraged to restart as soon as possible to minimise the impact on morbidity. The implementation of suitable mitigation strategies can turn the interruption into an opportunity to accelerate the progress toward reaching the target.