Extrapolation of United Kingdom Pillar 2 Care home Covid-19 test data to ascertain effectiveness of lateral flow testing in low prevalence settings (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Lateral flow devices are quickly being implemented for use in large scale population surveillance programs for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United Kingdom. These programs have been piloted in city wide screening in the city of Liverpool, and are now being rolled out to support care home visits and the return home of University students for the Christmas break. Very little data exists comparing the performance of the UK lateral flow tests with gold standard PCR diagnostics, especially against comparable test populations such as the national Pillar 2 testing program in the United Kingdom. Here we utilise thousands of pillar 2 test data from our University of Birmingham test lab, and by extrapolation against the validate limit-of-detection of the lateral flow assay, provide a potential sensitivity for the test in a comparable low prevalence population captured in the pillar 2 program. Our data suggests the lateral flow assay should successfully capture around 85% of all PCR positive tests performed in our pillar 2 laboratory, and that a fully designed comparative study of lateral flow versus PCR testing is merited in a real life testing environment