Association of working shifts, inside and outside of healthcare, with risk of severe COVID-19: An observational study (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BackgroundHealth and key workers are at an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19; it is not known, however, if this risk is exacerbated in those with irregular work patterns. We aimed to investigate the risk of severe COVID-19 in health and shift workers. MethodsWe included UK Biobank participants in employment or self-employed at baseline and with linked COVID-19 data to 31st August 2020. Participants were grouped as neither a health worker nor shift worker (reference category), health worker only, shift worker only, or both and associations with severe COVID-19 investigated in logistic regressions. FindingsOf 235,685 participants (81{middle dot}5% neither health nor shift worker, 1{middle dot}4% health worker only, 16{middle dot}9% shift worker only, and 0{middle dot}3% both), there were 580 (0{middle dot}25%) cases of severe COVID-19. The risk of severe COVID-19 was higher in health workers (adjusted odds ratio 2.32 [95% CI 1{middle dot}33, 4{middle dot}05]; shift workers (2{middle dot}06 [1{middle dot}72, 2{middle dot}47]); and in health workers who worked shifts (7{middle dot}56 [3{middle dot}86, 14{middle dot}79]). Being both a health worker and a shift worker had a possible greater impact on the risk severe COVID-19 in South Asian and Black and African Caribbean ethnicities compared to White individuals. InterpretationBoth health and shift work were independently associated with over twice the risk of severe COVID-19; the risk was over seven times higher in health workers who work shifts. Vaccinations, therapeutic and preventative options should take into consideration not only health and key worker status but also shift worker status. FundingNational Institute for Health Research, UK Research and Innovation. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSThe risk of developing severe COVID-19 is greater in occupational groups with higher levels of viral exposure, e.g. health and key workers. We searched PubMed and medRxiv up to December 8, 2020 for papers on shift work patterns, health work and incidence of COVID-19 using the keywords "COVID-19", "SARS-CoV-2", "shift work" "health worker". Recent evidence suggests shift workers are also at increased risk of severe COVID-19 but it is not clear if the risk is exacerbated in those who work shifts in healthcare. Added value of this studyThis study uses data from UK Biobank, a prospective cohort of >500,000 adults aged 40-69 years with baseline assessments between March 2006 and July 2010. Participants occupation was categorised according to whether or not they were health workers and/or shift workers at baseline. Results showed that being a health worker, or working shifts, were similarly and independently associated with over twice the population level risk of severe COVID-19 independent of age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation and co-morbidities. The risk was seven times higher in health workers with shift working patterns. The impact of health and shift work tended to be higher in males and in minority ethnic groups, who are already at an increased risk of severe COVID-19. In people over the age of retirement, the risk of developing severe COVID-19 associated with baseline health worker status was no longer apparent, suggesting the risk is likely explained by exposure to the virus. However, the elevated risk associated with baseline shift worker status persisted, albeit attenuated. Implications of all the available evidenceShift workers are at elevated risk of developing severe COVID-19. The persistence of an elevated risk in people who are now over retirement age, but had a shift worker status at baseline, suggests the risk may not be fully explained by increased exposure to the virus. Vaccination, therapeutic and prevention programmes are being prioritised for health care workers. Our data suggests that shift workers should also be prioritised for these preventive measures.