Voxel-level forecast system for lesion development in patients with COVID-19 (preprint)

ABSTRACT

The global spread of COVID-19 seriously endangers human health and even lives. By predicting patients' individualized disease development and further performing intervention in time, we may rationalize scarce medical resources and reduce mortality. Based on 1337 multi- stage ([≥]3) high-resolution chest computed tomography (CT) images of 417 infected patients from three centers in the epidemic area, we proposed a random forest + cellular automata (RF+CA) model to forecast voxel-level lesion development of patients with COVID-19. The model showed a promising prediction performance (Dice similarity coefficient [DSC] = 71.1%, Kappa coefficient = 0.612, Figure of Merit [FoM] = 0.257, positional accuracy [PA] = 3.63) on the multicenter dataset. Using this model, multiple driving factors for the development of lesions were determined, such as distance to various interstitials in the lung, distance to the pleura, etc. The driving processes of these driving factors were further dissected and explained in depth from the perspective of pathophysiology, to explore the mechanism of individualized development of COVID-19 disease. The complete codes of the forecast system are available at https//github.com/keyunj/VVForecast_covid19.