Divergences on expected pneumonia cases during the COVID-19 epidemic in Catalonia: A time-series analysis of primary care electronic health records covering about 6 million people. (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BackgroundPneumonia is one of the complications of COVID-19. Primary care electronic health records (EHR) have shown the utility as a surveillance system. AimTo analyze the trends of pneumonia during two waves of COVID-19 pandemic in order to use it as a clinical surveillance system and an early indicator of severity. MethodsTime series analysis of pneumonia cases, January 2014-December 2020. We collected pneumonia diagnoses from primary care EHR, covering >6 million people in Catalonia (Spain). We compared the trend of pneumonia in the season 2019-2020 with that in the previous years. We estimated the expected pneumonia cases with data from 2014 to 2018 using a time series regression adjusted by seasonality and influenza epidemics. ResultsBetween 4 March and 5 May 2020, 11,704 excess pneumonia cases (95% CI 9,909 to 13,498) were identified. We observed a second excess pneumonia period from 22 october to 15 november of 1,377 excess cases (95% CI 665 to 2,089). In contrast, we observed two great periods with reductions of pneumonia cases in children, accounting for 131 days and 3,534 less pneumonia cases (95% CI 1,005 to 6,064) from March to July; and 54 days and 1,960 less pneumonia cases (95% CI 917 to 3,002) from October to December. ConclusionsDiagnoses of pneumonia from the EHR could be used as an early and low cost surveillance system to monitor the spread of COVID-19.