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The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions (preprint)
medrxiv; 2021.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2021.01.11.21249564
ABSTRACT
We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Among control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number below 1 consistently; introduced one week earlier it could have reduced first wave deaths from 36,700 to 15,700 (95%CrI 8,900–26,800). Improved clinical care reduced the infection fatality ratio from 1.25% (95%CrI 1.18%–1.33%) to 0.77% (95%CrI 0.71%–0.84%). The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (35.9%, 95%CrI 29.1%–43.4%) than those residing in the community (10.4%, 95%CrI 9.1%–11.5%). England is still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence to 1st December 2020 between 4.8% (95%CrI 4.4%–5.1%) and 15.4% (95%CrI 14.9%–15.9%) of the population. One-sentence summary We fit a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to surveillance data from England, to estimate transmissibility, severity, and the impact of interventions:
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Preprint
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