Mortality in individuals treated with COVID-19 convalescent plasma varies with the geographic provenance of donors (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Treatment and prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have attempted to harness the immune response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) including the development of successful COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics (e.g., Remdesivir, convalescent plasma [CP]). Evidence that SARS-CoV-2 exists as quasispecies evolving locally suggests that immunological differences may exist that could impact the effectiveness of antibody-based treatments and vaccines. Regional variants of SARS-CoV-2 were reported in the USA beginning in November 2020 but were likely present earlier. There is available evidence that the effectiveness of CP obtained from donors infected with earlier strains in the pandemic may be reduced when tested for neutralization against newer SARS-Cov-2 variants. Using data from the Expanded Access Program to convalescent plasma, we used a gradient-boosting machine to identify predictors of 30-day morality and a series of regression models to estimate the relative risk of death at 30 days post-transfusion for those receiving near sourced plasma (defined as plasma transported [≤] 150 miles) vs. distantly sourced plasma (> 150 miles). Our results show a lower risk of death at 30 days post-transfusion for near sourced plasma. Additional analyses stratified by disease severity, time to treatment, and donor region further supported these findings. The results of this study suggest that near sourced plasma is superior to distantly sourced plasma, which has implications for interpreting the results of clinical studies and designing effective treatment of COVID-19 patients as additional local variant are likely to emerge.