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Reconstructing the COVID-19 epidemic in Delhi, India: infection attack rate and reporting of deaths (preprint)
medrxiv; 2021.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2021.03.23.21254092
ABSTRACT
India reported over 10 million COVID-19 cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To estimate exposure and the potential for further spread, we used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fit to seroprevalence data from three serosurveys in Delhi and the time-series of reported deaths to reconstruct the epidemic. The cumulative proportion of the population estimated infected was 48.7% (95% CrI 22.1% - 76.8%) by end-September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries (HICs), we estimate that 15.0% (95% CrI 9.3% - 34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths were reported. This indicates either under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths and/or a lower age-specific IFR in India compared with HICs. Despite the high attack rate of SARS-CoV-2, a third wave occurred in late 2020, suggesting that herd immunity was not yet reached. Future dynamics will strongly depend on the duration of immunity and protection against new variants.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Main subject:
Death
/
COVID-19
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Preprint
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