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Reconstructing the COVID-19 epidemic in Delhi, India: infection attack rate and reporting of deaths (preprint)
medrxiv; 2021.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2021.03.23.21254092
ABSTRACT
India reported over 10 million COVID-19 cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To estimate exposure and the potential for further spread, we used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fit to seroprevalence data from three serosurveys in Delhi and the time-series of reported deaths to reconstruct the epidemic. The cumulative proportion of the population estimated infected was 48.7% (95% CrI 22.1% - 76.8%) by end-September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries (HICs), we estimate that 15.0% (95% CrI 9.3% - 34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths were reported. This indicates either under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths and/or a lower age-specific IFR in India compared with HICs. Despite the high attack rate of SARS-CoV-2, a third wave occurred in late 2020, suggesting that herd immunity was not yet reached. Future dynamics will strongly depend on the duration of immunity and protection against new variants.
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Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Main subject: Death / COVID-19 Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Preprint

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Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Main subject: Death / COVID-19 Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Preprint