Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of a nationwide serosurvey in the Netherlands (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BackgroundThe proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who are asymptomatic - and whether this proportion is age-dependent - are still open research questions. Because an unknown proportion of reported symptoms among SARS-CoV-2 positives will be attributable to another infection or affliction, the observed, or crude proportion without symptoms may underestimate the proportion of persons without symptoms that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. MethodsBased on a large population-based serological study comprising test results on seropositivity and self-reported symptom history conducted in April/May 2020 in the Netherlands (n=3147), we estimated the proportion of reported symptoms among those persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 that is attributable to this infection, where the set of relevant symptoms fulfills the ECDC case definition of COVID-19, using inferential methods for the attributable risk (AR). Generalised additive regression modelling was used to estimate the age-dependent relative risk (RR) of reported symptoms, and the AR and asymptomatic proportion (AP) were calculated from the fitted RR. ResultsUsing age-aggregated data, the estimated AP was 70% (95% CI 65-77%). The estimated AP decreased with age, from 80% (95% CI 67-100%) for the <20 years age-group, to 55% (95% CI 48-68%) for the 70+ years age-group. ConclusionWhereas the crude AP represents a lower bound for the proportion of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 without COVID-19 symptoms, the AP as estimated via an attributable risk approach represents an upper bound. Age-specific AP estimates can inform the implementation of public health actions such as targetted virological testing and therefore enhance containment strategies.