Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines among Incarcerated People in California State Prisons: A Retrospective Cohort Study (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BackgroundPrisons and jails are high-risk settings for COVID-19 transmission, morbidity, and mortality. COVID-19 vaccines may substantially reduce these risks, but evidence is needed of their effectiveness for incarcerated people, who are confined in large, risky congregate settings. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study to estimate effectiveness of mRNA vaccines, BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna), against confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections among incarcerated people in California prisons from December 22, 2020 through March 1, 2021. The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation provided daily data for all prison residents including demographic, clinical, and carceral characteristics, as well as COVID-19 testing, vaccination status, and outcomes. We estimated vaccine effectiveness using multivariable Cox models with time-varying covariates that adjusted for resident characteristics and infection rates across prisons. FindingsAmong 60,707 residents in the cohort, 49% received at least one BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 dose during the study period. Estimated vaccine effectiveness was 74% (95% confidence interval [CI], 64-82%) from day 14 after first dose until receipt of second dose and 97% (95% CI, 88-99%) from day 14 after second dose. Effectiveness was similar among the subset of residents who were medically vulnerable (74% [95% CI, 62-82%] and 92% [95% CI, 74-98%] from 14 days after first and second doses, respectively), as well as among the subset of residents who received the mRNA-1273 vaccine (71% [95% CI, 58-80%] and 96% [95% CI, 67-99%]). ConclusionsConsistent with results from randomized trials and observational studies in other populations, mRNA vaccines were highly effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections among incarcerated people. Prioritizing incarcerated people for vaccination, redoubling efforts to boost vaccination and continuing other ongoing mitigation practices are essential in preventing COVID-19 in this disproportionately affected population. FundingHorowitz Family Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Science Foundation, Open Society Foundation, Advanced Micro Devices.