Association between City-wide Lockdown and COVID-19 Hospitalization Rates in Multigenerational Households in New York City (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BackgroundCity-wide lockdowns and school closures have demonstrably impacted COVID-19 transmission. However, simulation studies have suggested an increased risk of COVID-19 related morbidity for older individuals inoculated by house-bound children. This study examines whether the March 2020 lockdown in New York City (NYC) was associated with higher COVID-19 hospitalization rates in neighborhoods with larger proportions of multigenerational households. MethodsWe obtained daily age-segmented COVID-19 hospitalization counts in each of 166 ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTAs) in NYC. Using Bayesian Poisson regression models that account for spatiotemporal dependencies between ZCTAs, as well as socioeconomic risk factors, we conducted a difference-in-differences study amongst ZCTA-level hospitalization rates from February 23 to May 2, 2020. We compared ZCTAs in the lowest quartile of multigenerational housing to other quartiles before and after the lockdown. FindingsAmong individuals over 55 years, the lockdown was associated with higher COVID-19 hospitalization rates in ZCTAs with more multigenerational households. The greatest difference occurred three weeks after lockdown Q2 vs. Q1 54% increase (95% Bayesian credible intervals 22 - 96%); Q3 vs. Q1 48%, (17 - 89%); Q4 vs. Q1 66%, (30 - 211%). After accounting for pandemic-related population shifts, a significant difference was observed only in Q4 ZCTAs 37% (7 -76%). InterpretationBy increasing house-bound mixing across older and younger age groups, city-wide lockdown mandates imposed during the growth of COVID-19 cases may have inadvertently, but transiently, contributed to increased transmission in multigenerational households. FundingNational Center for Advancing Translational Sciences; Clinical and Translational Science Center at Weill Cornell Medical College.