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Impact of routine asymptomatic screening on COVID-19 incidence in a highly vaccinated university population (preprint)
medrxiv; 2021.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2021.10.18.21265057
ABSTRACT
Background:
With the return of in-person classes, an understanding of COVID-19 transmission in vaccinated university campuses is essential. Given the context of high anticipated vaccination rates and other measures, there are outstanding questions of the potential impact of campus-based asymptomatic screening.Methods:
We estimated the expected number of cases and hospitalizations in one semester using rates derived for British Columbia (BC), Canada up to September 15th, 2021 and age-standardizing to a University population. To estimate the expected number of secondary cases averted due to routine tests of unvaccinated individuals in a BC post-secondary institution, we used a probabilistic model based on the incidence, vaccination effectiveness, vaccination coverage and R0. We examined multiple scenarios of vaccine coverage, screening frequency, and pre-vaccination R0.Results:
For one 12 week semester, the expected number of cases is 67 per 50,000 for 80\% vaccination coverage and 37 per 50,000 for 95\% vaccination coverage. Screening of the unvaccinated population averts an expected 6-16 cases per 50,000 at 80\% decreasing to 1-2 averted cases per 50,000 at 95\% vaccination coverage for weekly to daily screening. Further scenarios can be explored using a web-based application.Interpretation:
Routine screening of unvaccinated individuals may be of limited benefit if vaccination coverage is 80\% or greater within a university setting.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Main subject:
COVID-19
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Preprint
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