Quantifying the effects of non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 epidemic in the Republic of Korea: Mathematical model-based approach considering age groups and the Delta variant (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: Early vaccination efforts and non-pharmaceutical interventions were insufficient to prevent a surge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases triggered by the Delta variant. This study aims to understand how vaccination and variants contribute to the spread of COVID-19 so that appropriate measures are implemented. Methods: A compartment model that includes age, vaccination, and infection with the Delta or non-Delta variants was developed. We estimated the transmission rates using maximum likelihood estimation and phase-dependent reduction effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) according to government policies from 26 February to 8 October 2021. We extended our model simulation until 31 December considering the initiation of eased NPIs. Furthermore, we also performed simulations to examine the effect of NPIs, arrival timing of Delta variant, and speed of vaccine administration. Results: The estimated transmission rate matrices show distinct pattern, with the transmission rates of younger age groups (0~39 years) much larger than non-Delta. Social distancing (SD) level 2 and SD4 in Korea were associated with transmission reduction factors of 0.64 to 0.69 and 0.70 to 0.78, respectively. The easing of NPIs to a level comparable to SD2 should be initiated not earlier than 16 October to keep the number of severe cases below the capacity of Korean healthcare system. Simulation results also showed that a surge prompted by the spread of the Delta variant can be prevented if the number of people vaccinated daily was larger. Conclusions: Simulations showed that the timing of easing and intensity of NPIs, vaccination speed, and screening measures are key factors in preventing another epidemic wave.