Behaviour, booster vaccines and waning vaccine protection: modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England (preprint)

ABSTRACT

England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with high infection levels observed throughout the summer months of 2021. Alongside the emergence of evidence suggesting that COVID-19 vaccine protection wanes over time, booster vaccinations began for individuals aged 50 and above in September 2021. Using a model fitted to 18 months of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England to September 2022. We consider key uncertainties including behavioural change, waning vaccine protection, strategies for vaccination, and the reintroduction of public health and social measures. We project the current wave of transmission will peak in Autumn 2021, with low levels of transmission in early 2022. The extent to which SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning vaccine protection and booster vaccinations. Widespread booster vaccinations or the reimposition of mild public health and social measures such as work-from-home policies could largely mitigate the wave of COVID-19 transmission projected to occur in England in Spring/Summer 2022.