A generic method and software to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time : SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Recent months have demonstrated that emerging variants may set back the global COVID-19 response. The ability to rapidly assess the threat of new variants in real-time is critical for timely optimisation of control strategies. We extend the EpiEstim R package, designed to estimate the time-varying reproduction number (Rt), to estimate in real-time the effective transmission advantage of a new variant compared to a reference variant. Our method can combine information across multiple locations and over time and was validated using an extensive simulation study, designed to mimic a variety of real-time epidemic contexts. We estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant is 1.46 (95% Credible Interval 1.44-1.47) and 1.29, (95% CrI 1.29-1.30) times more transmissible than the wild type, using data from England and France respectively. We further estimate that Beta and Gamma combined are 1.25 (95% CrI 1.24-1.27) times more transmissible than the wildtype (France data). All results are in line with previous estimates from literature, but could have been obtained earlier and more easily with our off-the-shelf open-source tool. Our tool can be used as an important first step towards quantifying the threat of new variants in real-time. Given the popularity of EpiEstim, this extension will likely be used widely to monitor the co-circulation and/or emergence of multiple variants of infectious pathogens.