Vaccinating children against COVID-19: commentary and mathematical modelling (preprint)

ABSTRACT

With the recent licensure of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19 in the 5-11 year old age group, the public health impact of a childhood immunization campaign is of interest. Using a mathematical epidemiological model, we project that childhood vaccination carries minimal risk and yields modest public health benefits. These include large relative reductions in child morbidity and mortality, although the absolute reduction is small because these events are rare. Furthermore, the model predicts altruistic absolute reductions in adult cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. However, vaccinating children to benefit adults should be considered from an ethical as well as a public health perspective. From a global health perspective, an additional ethical consideration is the justice of giving priority to children in high-income settings at low risk of severe disease while vaccines have not been made available to vulnerable adults in low-income settings.