SARS-CoV-2 Testing Strategies for Outbreak Mitigation in Vaccinated Populations (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Although COVID-19 vaccines are globally available, waning immunity and emerging vaccine-evasive variants of concern have hindered the international response as COVID-19 cases continue to rise. Mitigating COVID-19 requires testing to identify and isolate infectious individuals. We developed a stochastic compartmentalized model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United States and India using Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) assays, rapid antigen tests, and vaccinations. We detail the optimal testing frequency and coverage in the US and India to mitigate an emerging outbreak even in a vaccinated population overall, maximizing frequency is more important, but high coverage remains necessary when there is sustained transmission. We show that a resource-limited vaccination strategy still requires high-frequency testing and is 16.50% more effective in India than the United States. Tailoring testing strategies to transmission settings can help effectively reduce cases more than if a uniform approach is employed without regard to differences in location.