The decay of coronavirus in sewage pipes and the development of a predictive model for the estimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection cases based on wastewater surveillance (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Wastewater surveillance serves as a promising approach to elucidate the silent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a given community by detecting the virus in wastewater treatment facilities. This study monitored the viral RNA abundance at one WWTP and three communities during the COVID-19 outbreak in the Yanta district of Xian city from December 2021 to January 2022. To further understand the decay of the coronavirus in sewage pipes, avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) was seeded in two recirculating water systems and operated for 90 days. Based on the viral abundance in the wastewater of Xian and the above data regarding the decay of coronavirus in sewage pipes, Monte Carol simulations were performed to estimate the infectious cases in Xian. The results suggested that the delta variant was first detected on Dec-10, five days earlier than the reported date of clinical samples. SARS-CoV-2 was detected on December 18 in the monitored community two days earlier than the first case and was consecutively detected in the following two sampling times. In pipelines without biofilms, the results showed that high temperature significantly reduced the viral RNA abundance by 2.18 log10 GC/L after experiencing 20 km travel distance, while only a 1.68 log10 GC/L reduction was observed in the pipeline with a low water temperature. After 90 days of operation, the biofilm matured in the pipeline in both systems. Reductions of viral RNA abundance of 2.14 and 4.79 log10 GC/L were observed in low- and high-temperature systems with mature biofilms, respectively. Based on the above results, we adjusted the input parameters for Monte Carol simulation and estimated 23.3, 50.1, 127.3 and 524.2 infected persons in December 14, 18, 22 and 26, respectively, which is largely consistent with the clinical reports. This work highlights the viability of wastewater surveillance for the early warning of COVID-19 at both the community and city levels, which represents a valuable complement to clinical approaches.