Impact of COVID-19 Vaccinations in India - A Statewise Analysis (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Objectives: The aim of this paper is to perform a Statewise Analysis of the Second Covid Wave experienced by India using the Gompertz Curves and to assess the role played by vaccinations in reshaping the trajectory of Covid Infections for India. A total of 21 prominent states are chosen for the analysis encompassing 97\% of the Indian population. Since the vaccination program in India was rolled out after the First wave of infections had almost subsided, the current analysis is only relevant for the Second Wave. Methods: We will try to explore how the different properties of the Gompertz Curves can be used as a convenient tool to study the COVID-19 outbreak in India. The impact of vaccinations has also been studied at the state level to assess the extent to which the roll out of vaccination program has augmented the covid scenario of India. Vaccinations have been incorporated in the analysis by taking the daily cumulative number of individuals having the first and second shots of vaccine in each state as the explanatory variables. Results: The preliminary question that the paper tries to investigate is whether the vaccines capable of checking infection growth. Out of the chosen 21 states, 16 states show positive outcomes with some observable ambiguity for the states of Telangana, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and Kerala. Conclusions: Our analysis found that most of the states (16 out of 21 states) has positive impact of vaccination in reducing the Covid-19 cases.