The estimate of infected individuals of the 2019-Novel Coronavirus in South Korea by incoming international students from the countries of risk of 2019-Novel Coronavirus: a simulation study (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: In March 2020, overall, 37,000 international students from the country at risk of the 2019-novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection will arrive in Seoul, South Korea. Individuals from the country at risk of COVID-19 infection have been included in a home-quarantine program, but the efficacy of the program is uncertain. Methods: To estimate the possible number of infected individuals within the large influx of international students, we used a deterministic compartmental model for epidemic and perform a simulation-based search of different rates of compliance with home-quarantine. Results: Under the home-quarantine program, the total number of the infected individuals would reach 24-53 from March 17-March 20, 50-86 from March 18-March 16, and 234-343 from March 4-March 23 with the arrival of 0.1%, 0.2%, and 1% of pre-infectious individuals, in Seoul, South Korea, respectively. Our findings indicated when incoming international students showed strict compliance with quarantine, epidemics were less likely to occur in Seoul, South Korea. Conclusion: To mitigate possible epidemics, additional efforts to improve the compliance of home-quarantine are warranted along with other containment policies.