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Estimating the number of COVID-19-related infections, deaths and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios: A compartmental mathematical modeling (preprint)
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.04.22.20075440
ABSTRACT
Background:
Iran is one of the countries that has been overwhelmed with COVID-19. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios.Methods:
We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A 0% isolation, through E 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).Findings:
Under scenario A, we estimated 5,196,000 (UI 1,753,000 - 10,220,000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966,000 (UI 467,800 - 1,702,000) hospitalizations and 111,000 (UI 53,400 - 200,000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (i.e. 550,000) and change the epidemic peak from 66,000 on June 9th to 9,400 on March 1st. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (i.e. 74,500), and deaths by 93% (i.e. 7,800).Interpretation:
With no approved vaccination or therapy, we found physical distancing and isolation that includes public awareness and case-finding/isolation of 40% of infected people can reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Main subject:
COVID-19
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Preprint
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