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COVID-19 herd immunity strategies: walking an elusive and dangerous tightrope (preprint)
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.04.29.20082065
ABSTRACT
The rapid growth in cases of COVID-19 has threatened to overwhelm healthcare systems in multiple countries. In response, severely affected countries have had to consider a range of public health strategies achieved by implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions. Broadly, these strategies have fallen into two categories i) "mitigation", which aims to achieve herd immunity by allowing the SARS-CoV-2 virus to spread through the population while mitigating disease burden, and ii) "suppression", aiming to drastically reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates and halt endogenous transmission in the target population. Using an age-structured transmission model, parameterised to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK, we assessed the prospects of success using both of these approaches. We simulated a range of different non-pharmaceutical intervention scenarios incorporating social distancing applied to differing age groups. We found that it is possible to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission if social distancing measures are sustained at a sufficient level for a period of months. Our modelling did not support achieving herd immunity as a practical objective, requiring an unlikely balancing of multiple poorly-defined forces. Specifically, we found that i) social distancing must initially reduce the transmission rate to within a narrow range, ii) to compensate for susceptible depletion, the extent of social distancing must be vary over time in a precise but unfeasible way, and iii) social distancing must be maintained for a long duration (over 6 months).
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Main subject:
COVID-19
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Preprint
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