Estimating the extent of true asymptomatic COVID-19 and its potential for community transmission: systematic review and meta-analysis (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BackgroundThe prevalence of true asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is critical to policy makers considering the effectiveness of mitigation measures against the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We aimed to synthesize all available research on the asymptomatic rates and transmission rates where possible. MethodsWe searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane COVID-19 trials, and Europe PMC (which covers pre-print platforms such as MedRxiv). We included primary studies reporting on asymptomatic prevalence where (a) the sample frame includes at-risk population, and (b) there was sufficiently long follow up to identify pre-symptomatic cases. Meta-analysis used fixed effect and random effects models. We assessed risk of bias by combination of questions adapted from risk of bias tools for prevalence and diagnostic accuracy studies. ResultsWe screened 998 articles and included nine low risk-of-bias studies from six countries that tested 21,035 at-risk people, of which 559 were positive and 83 were asymptomatic. Diagnosis in all studies was confirmed using a RT-qPCR test. The proportion of asymptomatic cases ranged from 4% to 41%. Meta-analysis (fixed effect) found that the proportion of asymptomatic cases was 15% (95% CI 12% - 18%) overall; higher in non-aged care 16% (13% - 19%), and lower in long-term aged care 8% (3% - 18%). Four studies provided direct evidence of forward transmission of the infection by asymptomatic cases but suggested considerably lower rates than symptomatic cases. DiscussionOur estimates of the prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and asymptomatic transmission rates are lower than many highly publicized studies, but still sufficient to warrant policy attention. Further robust epidemiological evidence is urgently needed, including in sub-populations such as children, to better understand the importance of asymptomatic cases for driving spread of the pandemic. FundingOB is supported by NHMRC Grant APP1106452. PG is supported by NHMRC Australian Fellowship grant 1080042. KB was supported by NHMRC Fellowship grant 1174523. All authors had full access to all data and agreed to final manuscript to be submitted for publication. There was no funding source for this study.