Containing the Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Meteorological Factors and Control Strategies (preprint)

ABSTRACT

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread globally and the meteorological factors vary greatly across the world. Understanding the effect of meteorological factors and control strategies on COVID-19 transmission is critical to contain the epidemic. Using individual-level data in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore, and the number of confirmed cases in other regions, we explore the effect of temperature, relative humidity, and control measures on the spread of COVID-19. We found that high temperature mitigates the transmission of the disease. High relative humidity promotes COVID-19 transmission when temperature is low, but tends to reduce transmission when temperature is high. Implementing classical control measures can dramatically slow the spread of the disease. However, due to the occurrence of pre-symptomatic infections, the effect of the measures to shorten onset-to-isolation time is markedly reduced and the importance of contact tracing and quarantine and social distancing increases. The analytic results also highlight the importance of early intervention to contain the spread of COVID-19.