Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Importance In the United States, schools closed in March 2020 to reduce the burden of COVID-19. They are now reopening amid high incidence in many places, necessitating analyses of the associated risks and benefits. Objective: To determine the impact of school reopening with varying levels of operating capacity and face-mask adherence on COVID-19 burden. Design: Modeling study using an agent-based model that simulates daily activities of the population. Transmission can occur in places such as schools, workplaces, community, and households. Model parameters were calibrated to and validated against multiple types of COVID-19 data. Setting: Indiana, United States of America. Participants: Synthetic population of Indiana. K-12 students, teachers, their families, and others in the state were studied separately. Interventions: Reopening of schools under three levels of school operating capacity (50%, 75%, and 100%), as well as three assumptions about face-mask adherence in schools (50%, 75%, and 100%). We compared the impact of these scenarios to reopening at full capacity without face masks and a scenario with schools operating remotely, for a total of 11 scenarios. Main outcomes: SARS-CoV-2 infections, symptomatic cases, and deaths due to COVID-19 from August 24 to December 31. Results: We projected 19,527 (95% CrI 4,641-56,502) infections and 360 (95% CrI 67-967) deaths in the scenario where schools operated remotely from August 24 to December 31. Reopening at full capacity with low face-mask adherence in schools resulted in a proportional increase of 81.7 (95% CrI 78.2-85.3) times the number of infections and 13.4 (95% CrI 12.8-14.0) times the number of deaths. High face-mask adherence resulted in a proportional increase of 3.0 (95% CrI 2.8-3.1) times the number of infections. Operating at reduced capacity with high face-mask adherence resulted in only an 11.6% (95% CrI 5.50%-17.9%) increase in the number of infections. Conclusions and Relevance Reduced capacity and high face-mask adherence in schools would substantially reduce the burden of COVID-19 in schools and across the state. We did not explore the impact of other reopening scenarios, such as alternating days of attendance. Heterogeneous decisions could be made across different districts throughout the state, which our model does not capture. Hence, caution should be taken in interpreting our results as specific quantitative targets for operating capacity or face-mask adherence. Rather, our results suggest that schools should give serious consideration to reducing capacity as much as is feasible and enforcing adherence to wearing face masks.