CAN EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS REOPEN FOR IN-PERSON CLASSES SAFELY AMID THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC? (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Can educational institutions open up safely amid COVID-19? We build an epidemiological model to investigate the strategies necessary for institutions to reopen. The four measures that are most relevant for in-person opening are (i) wide-spread rapid testing, possibly saliva-based, (ii) enforcement of mask wearing, (iii) social distancing, and (iv) contact tracing. We demonstrate that institutions need to test at a relatively high level (e.g., at least once every week) in the initial phases of reopening. Contact tracing is relatively more important when the positivity rate from random testing is relatively low, which is likely during the initial phases. A Bayesian adaptive testing strategy based on positivity rates can help institutions optimally manage the costs and risks of reopening. This paper contributes to the nascent literature on combating the COVID-19 pandemic and is especially relevant for large-scale organizations. This work is motivated and guided by the SHIELD program of UIUC.