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The SIR model estimates incorrectly the basic reproduction number for the covid-19 epidemic (preprint)
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.10.11.20210831
ABSTRACT
The transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) becomes pandemic, but presents different patterns in the world. To characterize the epi- demic of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in each countries and regions, mathematical models were formulated aiming the estimation of the basic reproduction number R0. Simple mathematical model, the SIR model, provided lower estimation for R0, ranging from 1.5 to 3.0. However, more elaborate model presented here estimated higher value for R0, 9.24 and 8.0 respectively, for Sao Paulo State (Brazil) and Spain. Additionally, SIR model estimated R0 using the severe covid-19 cases, which are not participating in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission chain.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Main subject:
Glaucoma, Open-Angle
/
COVID-19
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Preprint
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