Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric health-care use and severe disease: a retrospective national cohort study (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BackgroundSevere disease directly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in children is rare. However, the indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric health have not been fully quantified. We examined paediatric health-care utilisation, incidence of severe disease, and mortality during the lockdown period in Scotland. MethodsThis national retrospective cohort study examined national data for emergency childhood primary and secondary care utilisation following national lockdown on March 23, 2020. To determine whether social distancing measures and caregiver behavioural changes were associated with delayed care-seeking and increased disease severity on presentation, unplanned, emergency admissions requiring invasive mechanical ventilation for the two national Paediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs) were analysed. PICU admissions were grouped by diagnostic category, and disease severity on presentation calculated. National statutory death records were consulted to establish childhood mortality rates and causes of death. For all observations, the lockdown period was compared to equivalent dates in 2016-2019. FindingsWe identified 273,455 unscheduled primary care attendances; 462,437 emergency department attendances; 54,076 emergency hospital admissions; 413 PICU emergency admissions; and 415 deaths during the lockdown study period and equivalent dates in previous years. The rates of emergency presentations to primary and secondary care fell during lockdown in comparison to previous years. Emergency PICU admissions for children requiring invasive mechanical ventilation also fell, with an odds ratio of 0{middle dot}52 for chance of admission during lockdown (95% CI 0{middle dot}37-0{middle dot}73, p < 0{middle dot}001). Clinical severity scores did not suggest children were presenting with more advanced disease. The greatest reduction in PICU admissions was for diseases of the respiratory system; those for injury, poisoning or other external causes were equivalent to previous years. Mortality during lockdown did not change significantly compared to 2016-2019. InterpretationNational lockdown led a reduction in paediatric emergency care utilisation, without associated evidence of severe harm. FundingNone Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSData on the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on children at a population level are limited. We searched PubMed and medRxiv on October 13, 2020, for studies published from Jan 1, 2020 examining the indirect effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and associated changes in caregiver health-care seeking behaviour, on the risk of severe paediatric disease and death. We used the search terms COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, non-pharmaceutical interventions, indirect, and children, as well as manually searching references in other relevant papers. Terms were searched individually and in combination as necessary, with no language restrictions. We identified one study that modelled the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on child deaths in low- and middle-income countries. Other studies analysed in isolation the effects of NPIs and other behavioural changes on emergency department attendances, hospital admission rates, paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission rates, or the incidence of specific presentations, such as asthma exacerbations. Some case series described delayed care-seeking for children with non-SARS-CoV-2 disease. We did not identify any national studies examining the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of severe paediatric disease and mortality. Added value of this studyThis national study quantified the changes following national lockdown in Scotland on March 23, 2020. We examined data for unscheduled primary care and emergency department attendances, emergency hospital admissions, emergency paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admissions requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, and paediatric mortality. Rates were compared with previous years. We found a reduction in paediatric emergency care utilisation rates associated with national lockdown. This reduction is likely to be due to a combination of changes in health care seeking behavior, and a fall in overall burden of paediatric infectious disease. These measures did not appear to have been associated with evidence of severe harm to children in Scotland, as evidenced by severity scores on presentation to PICU or mortality. Implications of all the available evidenceThis is the first comprehensive population-based assessment at a national level of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on severe paediatric morbidity and mortality. Despite a significant reduction in health-care utilisation rates, we did not find associated evidence of severe harm. This study will assist policy makers, health-care providers and the public in evaluating the effects of lockdown on the risk of severe paediatric disease at a population level.