Lessons learned from Vietnam’s COVID-19 response: the role of adaptive behavior change and testing in epidemic control (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background Vietnam has emerged as one of the world’s leading success stories in responding to COVID-19. After prolonged zero-low transmission, a summer outbreak of unknown source at Da Nang caused the country’s first COVID-19 deaths, but was quickly suppressed. Vietnam recently reopened its borders to international travelers. Understanding the attendant risks and how to minimize them is crucial as Vietnam moves into this new phase. Methods We create an agent-based model of COVID-19 in Vietnam, using regional testing data and a detailed linelist of the 1,014 COVID-19 cases, including 35 deaths, identified across Vietnam. We investigate the Da Nang outbreak, and quantify the risk of another outbreak under different assumptions about behavioral/policy responses and ongoing testing. Results The Da Nang outbreak, although rapidly contained once detected, nevertheless caused significant community transmission before it was detected; higher symptomatic testing could have mitigated this. If testing levels do not increase, the adoption of past policies in response to newly-detected cases may reduce the size of potential outbreaks but will not prevent them. Compared to a baseline symptomatic testing rate of 10%, we estimate half as many infections under a 20% testing rate, and a quarter as many with 40-50% testing rates, over the four months following border reopenings. Conclusions Vietnam’s success in controlling COVID-19 is largely attributable to its rapid response to detected outbreaks, but the speed of response could be improved even further with higher levels of symptomatic testing.