Local prevalence of transmissible SARS-CoV-2 infection : an integrative causal model for debiasing fine-scale targeted testing data (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Targeted surveillance testing schemes for SARS-CoV-2 focus on certain subsets of the population, such as individuals experiencing one or more of a prescribed list of symptoms. These schemes have routinely been used to monitor the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in countries across the world. The number of positive tests in a given region can provide local insights into important epidemiological parameters, such as prevalence and effective reproduction number. Moreover, targeted testing data has been used inform the deployment of localised non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, surveillance schemes typically suffer from ascertainment bias; the individuals who are tested are not necessarily representative of the wider population of interest. Here, we show that data from randomised testing schemes, such as the REACT study in the UK, can be used to debias fine-scale targeted testing data in order to provide accurate localised estimates of the number of infectious individuals. We develop a novel, integrative causal framework that explicitly models the process underlying the selection of individuals for targeted testing. The output from our model can readily be incorporated into longitudinal analyses to provide local estimates of the reproduction number. We apply our model to characterise the size of the infectious population in England between June 2020 and January 2021. Our local estimates of the effective reproduction number are predictive of future changes in positive case numbers. We also capture local increases in both prevalence and effective reproductive number in the South East from November 2020 to December 2020, reflecting the spread of the Kent variant. Our results illustrate the complementary roles of randomised and targeted testing schemes. Preparations for future epidemics should ensure the rapid deployment of both types of schemes to accurately monitor the spread of emerging and ongoing infectious diseases.