Ten months of temporal variation in the clinical journey of hospitalised patients with COVID-19: an observational cohort (preprint)

ABSTRACT

There is potentially considerable variation in the nature and duration of the care provided to hospitalised patients during an ongoing infectious disease epidemic or pandemic. Improvements in care and clinician confidence may shorten the time spent as an inpatient, or the need for admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) or high density unit (HDU), while novel treatment modalities may reduce the time course of illness. On the other hand, limited resources at times of high demand may lead to rationing of resources, with less beneficial consequences. Despite little evidence on how the values of such variables change over the course of a crisis (such as the current COVID-19 pandemic), they may nevertheless be used as proxies for disease severity, outcome measures for clinical trials, and to inform planning and logistics. In this study, we investigate such time trends in an extremely large international cohort of 142,540 patients with symptom onset of, or hospital admission for, COVID-19 during 2020. The variables investigated are time from symptom onset to hospital admission, probability of ICU/HDU admission, time from hospital admission to ICU/HDU admission, case fatality ratio (CFR) and total length of hospital stay. Time from hospital symptom onset to hospital admission showed a rapid decline during the first months of the pandemic followed by peaks during August/September and December. ICU/HDU admission was more frequent from June to August, while there were only modest time trends in time from hospital admission to ICU/HDU. The CFR was lowest from June to August, a trend mostly driven by patients with no ICU/HDU admission. Raw numbers for overall hospital stay showed little overall variation over the time period, but further examination reveals a clear decline in time to discharge for ICU/HDU survivors. Our results establish that variables of these kinds have limitations when used as outcome measures in a rapidly-evolving situation.