Comparative evaluation of the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Since the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in late 2019, several variants of concern (VOC) have been reported, such as B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, and B.1.617.2. The exact reproduction number Rt for these VOCs is important to determine appropriate control measures. Here, we estimated the transmissibility for VOCs and lineages of SAR-CoV-2 based on genomic data and Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to infer the reproduction number (Rt). We analyzed data for multiple VOCs from the same time period and countries, in order to compare their transmissibility while controlling for geographical and temporal factors. The lineage B had a significantly higher transmissibility than lineage A, and contributed to the global pandemic to a large extent. In addition, all VOCs had increased transmissibility when compared with other lineages in each country, indicating they are harder to control and present a high risk to public health. All countries should formulate specific prevention and control policies for these VOCs when they are detected to curve their potential for large-scale spread.