Reduced COVID-19 Hospitalizations among New York City Residents Following Age-Based SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Eligibility: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: In clinical trials, several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines were shown to reduce risk of severe COVID-19 illness. Local, population-level, real-world evidence of vaccine effectiveness is accumulating. We assessed vaccine effectiveness for community-dwelling New York City (NYC) residents using a quasi-experimental, regression discontinuity design, leveraging a period (January 12-March 9, 2021) when [≥]65-year-olds were vaccine-eligible but younger persons, excluding essential workers, were not. Methods: We constructed segmented, negative binomial regression models of age-specific COVID-19 hospitalization rates among 45-84-year-old NYC residents during a post-vaccination program implementation period (February 21-April 17, 2021), with a discontinuity at age 65 years. The relationship between age and hospitalization rates in an unvaccinated population was incorporated using a pre-implementation period (December 20, 2020-February 13, 2021). We calculated the rate ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the interaction between implementation period (pre or post) and age-based eligibility (45-64 or 65-84 years). Analyses were stratified by race/ethnicity and borough of residence. Similar analyses were conducted for COVID-19 deaths. Results: Hospitalization rates among 65-84-year-olds decreased from pre- to post-implementation periods (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.97), controlling for trends among 45-64-year-olds. Accordingly, an estimated 721 (95% CI 126-1,241) hospitalizations were averted. Residents just above the eligibility threshold (65-66-year-olds) had lower hospitalization rates than those below (63-64-year-olds). Racial/ethnic groups and boroughs with higher vaccine coverage generally experienced greater reductions in RR point estimates. Uncertainty was greater for the decrease in COVID-19 death rates (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.66-1.10). Conclusion: The vaccination program in NYC reduced COVID-19 hospitalizations among the initially age-eligible [≥]65-year-old population by approximately 15%. The real-world evidence of vaccine effectiveness makes it more imperative to improve vaccine access and uptake to reduce inequities in COVID-19 outcomes.