Quantifying within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in secondary schools in England (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background To control within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England, secondary school pupils have been encouraged to participate in twice weekly mass testing via lateral flow device tests (LFTs) from 8th March 2021, to complement an isolation of close contacts policy in place since 31st August 2020. Strategies involving the isolation of close contacts can lead to high levels of absences, negatively impacting pupils. Methods We fit a stochastic individual-based model of secondary schools to both community swab testing data and secondary school absences data. By simulating epidemics in secondary schools from 31st August 2020 until 21st May 2021, we quantify within-school transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in secondary schools in England, the impact of twice weekly mass testing on within-school transmission, and the potential impact of alternative strategies to the isolation of close contacts in reducing pupil absences. Findings The within-school reproduction number, R school , has remained below 1 from 31st August 2020 until 21st May 2021. Twice weekly mass testing using LFTs have helped to control within-school transmission in secondary schools in England. A strategy of serial contact testing alongside mass testing substantially reduces absences compared to strategies involving isolating close contacts, with only a marginal increase in within-school transmission. Interpretation Secondary school control strategies involving mass testing have the potential to control within-school transmission while substantially reducing absences compared to an isolation of close contacts policy.