Self-testing and vaccination against COVID-19 to minimize school closure (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Schools were largely closed in 2020-2021 to counter COVID-19 spread, impacting students education and well-being. With highly contagious variants expanding in Europe while vaccine hesitancy persists, safe options to maintain schools open are urgently needed. We developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in school. We used empirical contact data measured in a primary and a secondary school in France, and field estimates for adherence to screening from 683 schools during the spring 2021 wave. Examining different screening protocols, we performed a cost-benefit analysis for varying epidemic conditions and vaccination scenarios. In a partially immunized school population, weekly screening would reduce the number of cases on average by 24% in the primary and 53% in the secondary school compared to symptom-based testing alone, if R=1.3 and 50% adhered to screening. This adherence was met in primary schools (53% (95% confidence interval 21-85%)), but insufficient participation was recorded in secondary schools (10% (1-38%) in middle schools, 6% (2-12%) in high schools). Regular screening would also reduce by 90% the number of student-days lost compared to reactive class closure. No difference was predicted when fully vaccinating teachers, due to their limited number and mixing. Partially vaccinating adolescents would still require regular screening for additional control (20% case reduction with 50% vaccinated students). In the upcoming fall, COVID-19 epidemic will likely continue to pose a risk to the safe opening of schools. Increasing vaccination coverage in adolescents and implementing regular testing while largely incentivizing adherence are essential steps to keep schools open.